The past year has been particularly nice to the Euro. The now 10 year old currency of the European Monetary Union has quickly gained status as a safe heaven for investors in times of financial crisis. In contrast, the British Pound has decreased much in value and paired the Euro at the end of the [...] [...more]
We should avoid reading too much for or against the euro over the events of this past week. Clearly, the strong euro rally appears to be on hold. We believe that dovish comments from an ECB councilmember plus weaker than anticipated data out of the EU and Germany this past week weakened the enthusiasm of euro bulls. Our analysis does project modest euro gains against the dollar for the week. [...more]
This past week sterling waged and lost a demoralized battle against the major currencies. The weaker than expected PPI Input (-3.3% m-o-m) pointed to a level of economic weakness greater than that seen on continental Europe. The euro rallied from that point forward into record territory, climbing to 0.90 and fueling talk of EUR/GBP reaching parity (1:1) in the near term. [...more]
A perception that the EURUSD has bottomed is floating around. The logic for this theory is that the EU zone economy is showing less strains than the US economy. Add to that the words from Trichet who drew a line on the sand indicating a virtual end to the ECB rate cuts. The euro is ripe for a pullback around 1.31 but the lack of major EU economic news may give enough momentum to challenge this key resistance. [...more]
This night EUR/USD has broken the november high and seems to finally battle the range it has been trading in for so long. The ‘perfect channel’ I described yesterday was only perfect at the moment of writing, and immediately fought its way out. This emphasizes the fact that there are no such things as easy [...] [...more]
Every trader is looking for so-called ‘easy trades’. These trades, as their name suggests, are easy to spot and can be traded with 100% certainty. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as an easy trade. If there would, we probably were all making money by now. Nevertheless, there are moments that a trade makes more [...] [...more]
Ouch, that was painful yesterday. My stop loss at 1.2970 was triggered and the market immediately turned around, touching as low as 2826 this morning. My SL couldn’t have been set at a worse place as it exactly touched yesterdays high. Although this might be painful to realize afterwards, the important thing to me is [...] [...more]
Since I live in Amsterdam (Netherlands) the forex market opens for me Sunday at 23.00 local time. I always watch the opening as this is sometimes full of surprises and then go to bed, only to find out the next morning what has happend during the first hours of the week. This morning I woke [...] [...more]
What an interest year 2008 has been so far. The first half of they year we have seen a rapidly dropping Dollar and the market was wondering how low the USD could possibly go, after breaking the 1.60 level in July. The credit crisis was limited to the American and British economy and for the [...] [...more]
The markets are waiting for a very important macro economic number from the US. The non-farm employment change represents the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. If the forecast of -320K represents the real number, we could see the Dollar dropping as this is more negative news about the US [...] [...more]
